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2020-08-27T23:22:28+08:00
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公司研究报告
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招商证券
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0102
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研究报告
2c9088db39af292d0139af446a2e021e
点评报告
2020-08-27
2020年08月27日
002251.SZ
34119
步步高
1003
SZ
ff8080813d477661013d47a35cd60013
强烈推荐
2c9088a037de687b0137dea06c45001b
A
ff8080813d477661013d47b392d4002f
维持
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0.00
0.00
8a48b28b61db37e90161e5c241a61b73,ff8080816bb27f5e016bb5b88ccb14af,8a48b28b643c219201645a7b2a235f8f;
宁浮洁(ningfujie),丁浙川(dingzhechuan),李秀敏(lixiumin1);
Q2业绩恢复正增长,数字化进程加快
事件:步步高公布20年半年报,2020年H1公司营业收入103.52亿元,同比增长2.79%,归母净利润1.66亿元,同比下降31.79%,扣非后归母净利润1.35亿元,同比下降41.79%;其中Q2实现营收48.36亿元,同比增加8.62%,归母净利润0.66亿元,同比上升15.17%,扣非后归母净利润0.50亿元,同比上升2.78%,Q2业绩明显好转。
超市板块利润总额显著增长,省内门店收入略有提升。2020年上半年新开业态门店18家(超市门店17家,百货门店1家),新签约门店25家,同时关闭了10家门店,其中湖南5家、广西1家、川渝4家。目前省内门店228家,省外门店129家,省内可比门店营业收入同比提升0.77%,省外可比门店营业收入同比下滑9.06%。超市可比门店营业收入同比增长9.56%,利润总额同比增长22.37%;百货受疫情冲击较大,可比门店营业收入同比下降26.25%,利润总额同比下降55.75%。
毛利率因百货受疫情冲击下滑,费用率略有改
善。公司上半年毛利率22.77%(同比-1.86pct),主要原因系百货受疫情冲击导致毛利率下滑明显。分业务来看,公司上半年超市+家电毛利率16.46%,同比增长0.35pct,百货毛利率13.16%,同比降低1.38pct。期间费用率整体有所改善,销售/管理/财务费用率分别为17.40%(同比-0.60pct)/1.76%(-0.05pct)/1.67%(+0.31pct),主要原因系公司信息化程度提升,动态用工提升。
线上线下逐步融合,全渠道服务用户。截至2020年H1,全司到家门店349家,其中Be
tter购349家、京东208家、饿了么286家、美团225家、多点6家。自助收银门店348家、扫码购门店234家、社群覆盖门店346家。公司实现数字会员2081万,数字化会员贡献销售占总销售71%。2020年上半年线上GMV为33.48亿元。同时,公司聚焦以生鲜为核心的供应链变革,通过生鲜的基地直采减少中间环节,看好公司数字化+供应链发展战略下净利率的持续回升。
投资建议:公司明确战略发展方向,积极投入供应链升级与数字化转型夯实竞争力,看好公司长期发展。预计2020年净利润约2.27亿,目前对应PE为5
1倍,维持“强烈推荐-A”评级。
风险提示:疫情影响超出预期;数字化改造效果不达预期。
估值模型_首页预测_公司报告:会计年度,主营收入(百万元),同比增长,营业利润(百万元),同比增长,净利润(百万元),同比增长,每股收益(元),PE,PB;2018,18456,7%,240,9%,156,3.11%,0.18,74.5,1.5;2019,19725,7%,226,-6%,173,11%,0.20,66.9,1.5;2020E,21914,11.10%,310,37%,227,31%,0.26,51.0,1.5;2021E,23510,7.29%,393,27%,287,26%,0.33,
40.4,1.5;2022E,25713,9.37%,500,27%,367,28%,0.42,31.6,1.4
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